TurkoTek Discussion Boards

Subject  :  Some Images
Author  :  John Howe
Date  :  04-29-2000 on 07:29 p.m.
rjhowe@erols.com Jerry has given us quite a few photo images of ACOR 5. Coincidentally, I bought a new camera supposedly automatic enough that I can take good rug pictures without becoming a photographer. For those interested it's a Nikon N60 body with a Tamron 80-200 lens. I asked Don Tuttle what he thought of it for my purposes and he said it's what he uses a lot himself. There were still operator problems. Wendel Swan, who owns a very similar rig, had to point out to me that the flash has to be made operational manually. Anyway, I have more than a few ACOR images. First, I should say to those who missed it that most of the rugs in the two exhibitions have been published. The entire Wiedersperg Collection is in the Pinner, Eiland catalog, "Between the Black Desert and the Red," and many of the Passages II pieces owned by SF Bay area collectors are in Eiland's "Oriental Rugs from Pacific Collections," and since some have been purchased from the Kierchheim Collection, in "Woven Stars." But now here are a few images from ACOR. Here is a brilliant suzani that was one of the first things that caught my eye as dealers' row was opening up. As far as I know it remained unsold at the end. At least it was still there. Turkotek is not about people but ACOR, to a great extent is. Here is Dr. John Sommer, the peripatetic President of the San Fracisco Bay club, our hosts at ACOR 5. Here is one shot of dealer's row. Can't get the actual panorama of it in. When you got into one of the dealer rooms quite frequently there was a table of small items. Here's one with Central Asian items. One of the sessions on Turkish weavings was given by the venerable Josephine Powell, who for years wandered the Turkish countryside on horseback photographing and documenting Turkish kilims and other weavings. It is said that she once rode into a village and asked if she could photograph their weavings. They said, of course, but that she had done so twice previously. One day this Baluch fragment appeared in one dealer's room (actually first in the breakfast line on Maury Bynum's chest). It had a sign saying that it would be sold to the highest bidder by the end of that day. Reputed to have been bought by a group of NYC dealers for a price you wouldn't believe. The wonderful blue ground does not nearly come through in this photo. This image is for those who may have wondered what Murray Eiland, Jr., the psychiatrist and prolific rug authority and writer looks like. Like a teddy bear, actually, with a nice gentle manner to match. Jerry's long shots of the Dixon house are far better than my own, so I'll include only two fragments that I liked. Perhaps some others can describe them accurately for us. And here's Jim Dixon. Jerry and some of the other folks have talked about what they bought at ACOR 5, and I personally almost got away but not quite. One day I ran into an Uzbek band fragment that was pretty and seemed to me to be seriously under-priced. I left a note, for the German dealer, who was absent momentarily and forgot it. The last day the dealer pursued me and I came home with it. A fine, enjoyable ACOR 5, as I will ultimately say again in Ghereh in a coming issue. Regards, R. John Howe

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Stephen Louw
Date  :  04-29-2000 on 08:58 p.m.
John, a great photo essay, and yet another good reason to ensure that I make an effort to attent the next one. The baluch fragement interested me, can you tell us anything more about it. To my uneducated eye it does not seem like something to get excited about. Stephen slouw@global.co.za

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  R. John Howe
Date  :  04-30-2000 on 08:53 p.m.
Hi Stephen - About the Balouch fragment: the blue of the ground was, I thought, exceptional. The drawing of the flowers was quite naturalistic but one runs into that rather frequently in old Balouch pieces. About whether it should trigger unusual interest, I can only say that as Maury Bynum had it on his chest in the breakfast line, DeWitt Mallory, the experienced NYC Balouch collector came up to him saying, "You called?" As I said, this piece is said to have gone for a very, very big price. In fact one hard to believe. The books of the Apocrypha are still appropriate analogs for some oriental rug stories. Regards, R. John Howe

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Michael Wendorf
Date  :  04-30-2000 on 10:46 p.m.
Dear Stephen and John: It's a bit more than that. This Baluch frag is one of the three great frags I commented on seeing in my 4-28 post. The wool and color were exceptional on this fragment, but it is the back and the drawing of the mina khani lattice that identify it as a member of what is probably the oldest group of surviving Baluch group carpets. As to drawing; all these pieces have a version of the mina khani pattern and all seem to come out of Kerman area designs. A number of other related pieces are known, not the least of which is the Hilpp carpet seen at the ACOR in Chicago (plate 1 of Mideast meets Midwest). The Anne Halley carpet seen at ICOC San Francisco in 1990 is another (plate 100 of the cataloge) as are several carpets exhibited at the ICOC in Philadelphia (plates 304 and 314). Of course, the Wher collection example that passed through Herrmann's hands is perhaps the most famous. Several others are unpublished, but known to many collectors. All of these pieces seem to have the odd small filler elements floating on the field. Several lattice and color combinations of the flowers are known, but they are all limited in palette and deeply saturated in color, as was this fragment. In terms of drawing what really set this piece apart was the delicacy of the lattice and the way it meandered through the field attaching to the flowers and the two planes of design between the smaller white flowers and the other rosettes. In this way it seemed closest to the Swan carpet (seen in Philadelphia #304) in drawing. This is where the back and the carpet's construction come in to play. It had to my recollection a flat and what is called salt and pepper back that felt extremely old in the hand. Having held a number of the other examples in my hands, I (and a number of others who had a chance to examine the fragment at ACOR) felt it belonged to the earliest group of these mina khani pieces which have been traced in at least two instances back to at least the 1820s. I even heard people saying 18th century. So, never mind we are talking about a Persianate design. What you had at play was the combination of very good drawing, wool and color (not fully seen in this photo) combined with a construction that is now considered to be that of the very earliest known carpets of the Baluch group in a fresh example. This and the competitive urges of the people there gives the result. Still, it is a piece of a rug (probably workshop production showing persian influence), but enough to give a sense of what the rug must have been -- something quite grand indeed. Hope this helps at least a little. Michael W.

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  R. John Howe
Date  :  05-01-2000 on 06:17 a.m.
Dear Michael - Thanks for this very knowledgeable and comprehensive answer to Stephen's question. I just took a look at the Ann Halley piece and its ground color does not come through in the photo. If the ground color of this piece is similar to the fragment at ACOR 5, I can't discern it. The drawing on both the Mark Hopkins piece and especially on that owned by Wendel Swan is to my mind much closer to the ACOR 5 fragment but the ground color on Wendel's piece (which is one of the best Balouch weavings I have ever seen in the wool) is different from that of this fragment. (I have heard repeated references to "old backs" and have probed them, expecting that what is being referred to is some recognizable trace of abrasion, but have usually come away from such conversations feeling less well-informed than I wanted.) I think you are right to place this piece in the general group that you do (dark field, archaic seemingly more Persianate rendering of the mina khani design) but for me the ground blue of this piece was distinctive. I don't think I've seen it elsewhere. And you are certainly right that the the original complete carpet must have been a thing of real beauty. And we don't even know what the borders looked like. Regards, R. John Howe

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Michael Wendorf
Date  :  05-01-2000 on 10:28 a.m.
Dear John: Thanks for the follow-up. Let me try to be a little clearer in what I am referring to about the back and construction. It is just not a matter of abrasion, though this fragment had abrasion on its back. By salt and pepper I mean the way the warps and wefts look on the back, light warps and dark wefting in a distinctive combination. We have discussed handle and the difficulty of describing it. But the handle here was lush and floppy, yet the back felt dry and abraded. As for the blue ground, they all have it. This was a really deep blue, but I did not think it unique. The wool quality was exceptional, but it seems to be so on all of the members of the group. Many rugs in the group have a simple field drawing and some are what people would call archaic. The Mallory piece and Hopkins examples seem more archaic (whatever that really means). This fragment was actually quite sophisticated and delicate in drawing. By delicate I mean look at the white flowers, they are almost dancing on that lattice and face slightly inward toward the mirrored lattice running parallel on the other side of the main rosette. Then look at the lattice itself and the way the meander almost creates an "S" form as it ascends. There are only four different flowers depicted, and all are well drawn and proportionate, but the composition does not seem static to me. By sophistication I mean that to me this fragment is fairly schematic in composition, but executed with such delicacy and quality of material as to become almost alive. Some carpets knock us out with scale or an unconstrained or spontaneous vigor, others achieve it more subtly and delicately. Here I think the delicacy of drawing, material quality and possible age are in the knock out category even if it just a piece of a rug. Michael

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Marvin Amstey
Date  :  05-01-2000 on 10:29 a.m.
I, too, examined the piece, and Michael's description is accurate. However, remember that this is a very small fragment of what was probably a large - for Baluchi - carpet; probably 4 x 8. The price, John, is not apocryfal. I know the seller and one of the owners, and this discussion train is what makes for the hype in getting crazy prices for fragments. I emphasize the operative word: "crazy". Best regards, Marvin

Subject  :  Big bucks for a Belouch fragment!
Author  :  Steve Price
Date  :  05-01-2000 on 01:29 p.m.
sprice@hsc.vcu.edu Dear People, At ACOR's Market Trends focus session I noted the dramatic increase in prices of Belouch bags and rugs over the past decade (they have approximately tripled), but having a Belouch fragment command serious money in the ACOR hallways is a landmark of sorts. The "real money fragments" with which I'm familiar are usually Salor, Mughal, very old Caucasian, Persian or Turkish urban products, etc. I don't think I've ever heard of a Belouch fragment selling for a lot of money at the major auction houses. In fact, the only one that even comes to mind is a lovely old Belouch bagface with terrific wool and color, missing an entire border, that sold at Skinner's for about $650 in the early 1990's. Steve Price

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Michael Wendorf
Date  :  05-01-2000 on 01:47 p.m.
Dear Steve: My observation is that most of the best old Baluch pieces sell privately, particularly fragments or damaged pieces for which there is an avid but small number of collectors. Generally, the price inflation you remarked on is limited to a very small number of exceptional blue ground pieces that have only come to be understood in the last 5-6 years. I believe there has been deflation of some or perhaps even most types of Baluchis over the same period. How about camel ground prayer rugs? But the same can be said about other areas. More and more we see great things as defined by a small group of leading collectors and dealers bring increasingly high prices and everything else stay flat or decline. But now we really are moving into a commercial discussion, aren't we? Take care, Michael

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Steve Price
Date  :  05-01-2000 on 03:01 p.m.
sprice@hsc.vcu.edu Dear Michael, I don't think we'll cross the line that keeps Turkotek out of commercial waters as long as we don't talk about specific rugs that are for sale or specific vendors who are offering them. The more general stuff seems appropriate to me, and, last time I checked, with Turkotek's Bande of Merrie Men (and Fair Maid Ginnie). So, here are some general observations. 1. A fragment of a rug is worth less than the whole thing would be. This seems self-evident enough. Therefore, if a fragment is worth a lot of money, the whole thing would be worth much, much more. 2. If there is a collector market for old Belouch fragments, it won't be long before it finds its way into the auction houses. The reason it hasn't done so just yet, I suspect, is that Belouch prices have risen very fast (more about this below) and until Belouch rugs became pretty valuable, fragments of Belouch rugs couldn't be worth much. 3. One of the points that was raised by some knowledgeable people (Peter Pap and Mary Jo Otsea) on the Market Trends panel at ACOR was the one you raised; the best pieces are the ones that lead the market. 4. While the best pieces appreciate most rapidly (or depreciate least rapidly, depending on the current fashion), some genres have done much better than others during the past decade. Caucasians have lagged, for example, and average pieces have lost subsantial value, although the best ones still command big bucks. Belouch have done better. The best are worth lots more than they were 10 years ago, mediocre ones haven't changed much (as you note). The best embroideries have appreciated in value dramatically, to mention another example. Mary Jo Otsea attributes this to a tendency for rug collectors to become textile collectors, with little tendency for textile collectors to cross in the other direction. I don't have the data with which to debate the assertion that the Belouch price inflation of the past 10 years applies to only a small number of pieces, but I suspect that Belouch price inflation is pretty broadly based. In the December 1988 issue of the late, much lamented, ORIENTAL RUG REVIEW, George O'Bannon surveyed auction prices of Belouch group rugs and bags. As of that time, no Belouch bagface had sold for more than $1500 and no Belouch rug for more than $5500 (I'm working from a most unreliable memory now, so these numbers may be a little off). Eleven or so years later, $1,500 is probably not too far above the average price for nice Belouch bagfaces (a number have sold for well over $5,000), and the top price for a Belouch rug has now passed $20,000. Regards, Steve Price

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Marvin Amstey
Date  :  05-01-2000 on 05:27 p.m.
mamstey1@rochester.rr.com Steve, I think your figures about O'Bannon's estimates are off by a factor of at least 3, since I was the buyer of a bagface in 1990 that far surpassed Geo.'s $1500. I'm certain that it would sell for 3 times more today. In fact the famous Adraskand rug in Hartley Clark's book sold for 12,500 pounds plus 10% at Sotheby's London in 1979 to David Black who then sold it to McCoy Jones for more. It is now in the DeYoung in SF. And who can forget the small, blue-ground Baluchi prayer rug that sold at Skinner's a few years ago for more than $19,000? Best regards, Marvin

Subject  :  Belouch auction prices
Author  :  Steve Price
Date  :  05-01-2000 on 05:50 p.m.
sprice@hsc.vcu.edu Dear Marvin, I think you misunderstood my post. The O'Bannon review of Belouch auction prices was made prior to 1990, which is why your purchase in that year wasn't included. I finally dug out the article, and my memory did put some inaccuracies into my previous posts. So, let me straighten things out. 1. The article didn't appear in December 1988, but in December 1989. So, it was written a little more than 10 years ago. 2. It didn't cover all Belouch sales up to that time, but only those in the 6 years, 1983-1988. 3. I wasn't aware of the Belouch sold in 1979 for 13,750 pounds at Sotheby's, London, but apparently O'Bannon overlooked it, too. Here's a quotation from his article: The highest price paid for a Baluch had occurred at Edelmann's April 15, 1980, sale when a beige Tree of Life prayer rug brought $3,800. 4. Here are the top prices Belouch rugs brought during the 6 year period he covers; they are said to be higher than the highest before that period. The top price for any Belouch rug was $4,750. Two pieces brought this much, a Dokhtor-i-Qazi prayer rug and a Yacub Khani main carpet. 5. O'Bannon's list goes down to $1,500, and there is not a single bag or bagface on it. He comments on this: ...their absence is more an indication of our price limit than of their lack of popularity. That is, he was unaware of even a single Belouch bag selling for as much as $1,500 at auction by the end of 1988. Anybody who follows Belouch prices realizes, as Marvin does, that prices now exceed $20,000 for the top Belouch rugs (more than a fourfold increase in 10 years), and there is nothing particularly remarkable about Belouch bagfaces selling for $2,000 to $6,000. Steve Price

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Stephen Louw
Date  :  05-04-2000 on 11:33 a.m.
Dear John and Michael Thanks for your very detailed replies to my question. Looking at the fragment again, I really appreciate it. This is not just a case of being told what is good but, more importantly, of being taught what to look for. Thanks Stephen slouw@global.co.za

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  R. John Howe
Date  :  05-04-2000 on 07:35 p.m.
Hi Stephen - Please note that your thanks are focused a bit too broadly. I can look up images in rug books but all the informed comment here came from Michael's side. Regards, R. John Howe

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Michael Wendorf
Date  :  05-04-2000 on 09:41 p.m.
Dear Stephen and John: Thanks for the opportunity to explain my view of this fragment and the kind words. Best regards, Michael

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Mark+Hopkins
Date  :  05-04-2000 on 11:56 p.m.
Couple of comments on all this Baluch palaver from a Baluch collector of sorts. First, can we be more specific on the Baluch frag regarding its "salt and pepper" back? (Unfortunately because of the pressures of helping run ACOR I never got to see it). In my experience a very few of the oldest blue field minakhani pieces I've seen have salt-and-pepper appearing backs because they have a single weft construction, including a piece in my own collection which is a bagface frag similar to the piece in question only much less sophisticated. Was this piece single wefted? This single wefted thing is interesting because the construction may be a clue to something we don't yet understand. Second point: if Skinner auctions are any guage of the market, a Baluch prayer rug (#3) in their 4/29 auction, one that I would have estimated at $3000, got hammered with one bid at $1000. And a little blue field ivory bordered bagface, the nicest Baluch tschotschki in the sale, a super little piece despite a shark bite out of the left border, fizzled at $300. Are Baluches crashing? Or is the whole damn collectible market taking the year off? Nice pictures, John! Mark

Subject  :  Auction prices as market gauges
Author  :  Steve Price
Date  :  05-05-2000 on 06:25 a.m.
sprice@hsc.vcu.edu Dear Mark, I didn't mean to imply that any individual sale at a major auction house is the index of intermediate to long term (say, 5 to 15 years) market trend, and I surely wouldn't draw any conclusions about that from two pieces at Skinner's last month. I think the basic data in O'Bannon's 1989 survey - not a single Belouch rug had reached $5000 nor had any Belouch bagface reached $1500 - demonstrates pretty clearly that Belouch prices appreciated dramatically during the 1990's. I'm sure there were individual sales during that period when particular pieces didn't do well; that doesn't change the overall picture. Steve Price

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Marvin Amstey
Date  :  05-05-2000 on 08:33 a.m.
mamstey1@rochester.rr.com I'll stick my neck out and predict that not only will(are)Baluchi prices descending, but the whole market will (is) descending because the stock market has dropped (and will continue) and interest rates have climbed even higher (and will continue to do so for awhile). Other examples of poor rug performance can be seen in the recently concluded SNY sale where a classic Arabatchi didn't make reserve and other important(?)rugs didn't sell. The bears have come out of hibernation - it's springtime! Best regards, Marvin

Subject  :  Market trends
Author  :  Steve Price
Date  :  05-05-2000 on 09:27 a.m.
sprice@hsc.vcu.edu Dear Marvin, Your post covers two qustions. First, is the overall market for collectible rugs going to rise or fall over the next few years? Second, which segments are likely to outperform it? Lets look at the question of which segments of the rug market are likely to do best, price-wise. It appear that the segments that have appreciated most rapidly over the past 5 or 10 years includes upper range Belouch bags and rugs. Is this trend about to end in favor of some other? The answer is, nobody without a crystal ball can possibly know. What about the market for collectible rugs overall? I've heard two theories on the relationship of stock market conditions to the market for collectibles in general. One is that when the stock market is rising, people feel as though they can afford to spend more on stuff like collectibles. They do so, and the law of supply and demand pushes prices higher. That sounds reasonable to me, and, obviously, to you. The second theory is that when the stock market is falling, people pull money out of it and put it into other things, like collectibles. When they do so, the law of supply and demand pushes prices higher. That sounds reasonable to me, too. Since the two theories lead to opposite conclusions, they cannot both be right at the same time. Which is right at the moment? Or are there other, much more powerful forces that make the collectibles market behave almost independently of the stock market? Steve Price

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Guido+Imbimbo
Date  :  05-05-2000 on 09:39 a.m.
Dear Mr Marvin Amstey and All, 1) It is true the rug market as a whole is experiencing a generalized decline and this phenomenon seems to be accelerating right now. 2) I agree also that the likely trend in the future seems towards a further correction of prices. 3) Nevertheless, I believe that the main causes that are driving rugs prices are different from the recent US stock price correction (the broader S&P500 index is less than 10% below the peak reached in March 2000). 4) While it is true that the "bullish" stock market of the last years has dramatically increased the net worth of households and therefore sustained their consumer spending, there is no clear strong relation between carpet prices and stock market prices. During the last decade, for example, US stock prices increased at average annual rate above 20%, while prices in the rug market as whole hardly moved up. 5) The main forces of the rugs prices decline are instead to be identified in the substantial restructuring of the rug market itself. This market (as many others) is characterized by a high level of "inefficiency". Economists identify this term with the typical presence of extra-profits, lack of price transparency and substantial information asymmetry. During last years, supply, demand, and information in the rug market experienced a dramatic "globalization". With a fast increase of information and knowledge within the market participants (Turkotek played a role in this process), price transparency is increasing, margin are decreasing, some marginal intermediaries are expelled and rug prices are declining. 6) Of course, I agree that if the US stock market undergoes a further sharp price correction, the global consumer demand will suffer, and the rug market will be hit. However, I also think that, even if the US stock market will stabilize the restructuring process in the rug market and its price decline will continue. Best Regards Guido

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Michael Wendorf
Date  :  05-05-2000 on 10:34 a.m.
Dear All: Going back to Mark's question re the fragment. Yes, I believe the fragment had that single wefting you refer to. I do not know what this means, except it is my thought that this is most suggestive of a workshop or village weaving, as opposed to a tribal weaving. Guido is absolutely correct about the inefficiencies of the international rug market. There are very significant informational asymmetries which the internet may help to dissolve. In addition to a board like this, I know of at least one commercial venture that is or plans to try to address these inefficiencies, at least in the decorative market where they predominate. I think it is a lesser factor in the collectible market. I do not know what the stock market's relationship to rug prices is, but in an ascending market some people would decide not to buy because to do so takes money out of the markets and in to something else. In any event, I think that generally speaking, top level pieces will continue to do well if you know what they are. Maybe tomorrow they will be considered something different. The middle and lower ends will continue to tread water or sink because demand is even thinner than it is for top end pieces. We also should not over look the impact of the fantastic new production available. It makes much of the middle and lower end older material look weak and expensive. Thanks. Enjoy the weekend, Michael

Subject  :  Market Trends
Author  :  Guido Imbimbo
Date  :  05-05-2000 on 10:57 a.m.
miaom@pacific.net.sg Dear Steve, Allow me to express some ideas regarding rugs that may help answer your question regarding the two opposite theories. What is the best economic model of carpets? Are carpets "goods" or "assets"? Does their demand depend on consumer income and wealth? Goods differ from assets in that they are promptly used and assets have a much longer life. Assets are typically distinguished between financial assets and real assets. Financial assets are deposits, bonds, and stocks and usually they have a return, the rate of interest, and cost of capital. Real property and land represent real assets. The remuneration for their use is the rent. What is a collectable carpet? It is not a simple good because is not consumed. It is not a typical real asset because, despite its a long life, it generally does not have return for its use. We can put rugs in the category of real assets like gold or metals that are characterized by having a cost of storing. The comparison is not perfect, because gold is also a typical safe haven that people buy when there is high uncertainty and high inflation. Are carpets a typical safe haven? I do not think so. They may become a safe haven only in extreme periods of turbulence, like during wars. Carpets have also some features of durable goods (like cars or hi-fi) that have a longer life than simple goods. Demand of durable goods is clearly related to the consumers' income and net wealth. Conclusion: rug demand depends on consumer income and rug prices are not directly related to prices of financial assets (i.e., stocks). Thanks for your attention. Guido

Subject  :  Market Trends
Author  :  Steve Price
Date  :  05-05-2000 on 11:18 a.m.
sprice@hsc.vcu.edu Dear All, Michael Wendorf makes the point that the high quality new production is among the factors holding down the prices of low and middle grade old pieces. Peter Pap also made this point at the ACOR Market Trends session, and noted that it has essentially destroyed the market for "semi-antique" decorative carpets. After all, why would anyone pay more for a 70 year old rug (for instance) than for a well made new rug that uses high quality materials and dyes and meets a high aesthetic standard? Since the new production is pretty reasonably priced, the "semi-antique" has to be even cheaper. Steve Price

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Mark+Hopkins
Date  :  05-05-2000 on 09:49 p.m.
Goodness, how all this blather demonstrates how little we all understand about the rug market. I'll give you another slant, just for fun. If the last Skinner sale is any indication, nobody wants anything except the best, (even though most aren't exactly sure what that is), and the rest of the stuff continues to slide gently down the toilet. What I think is, with all this money around thanks to everybody listening to Abbie Cohen and Abbie Cohen having been lucky enough to be right again and again, fewer and fewer people are attracted to a field where you can collect pretty terrific stuff without much capital outlay. (Try getting into painting, sculpture, ceramics, etc., etc., and see what you can buy for what you'd pay for an A-minus antique oriental rug.) Could it be that we need to wait for the next bear market to set solidly in to see oriental rugs gain some attention from the collecting public again? Just a thought. Mark

Subject  :  Market Trends
Author  :  Steve Price
Date  :  05-06-2000 on 07:30 a.m.
sprice@hsc.vcu.edu Dear Mark, I think the crucial notion in your last post is embodied in this sentence: If the last Skinner sale is any indication, nobody wants anything except the best... Every sale includes some indication of the market trend, but no sale defines it. There are simply too many variables from day to day. For the hell of it, let's think about what might have held down the prices of the two pieces about which you rhapsodized earlier: 1. You're right, the Belouch heyday is over and nobody cares about them very much. (But how do we account for the fragment at ACOR bringing big bucks less than a week later?) 2. The stock market had a terrific year again in 1999, so people had big income tax bills to pay on April 15 and were reluctant spenders on April 28 because they were still licking their financial wounds. 3. The Belouch collectors with money to spend just didn't want to own those particular pieces badly enough to buy them. Belouch collectors who buy at Skinner's are a fairly small population, after all, and thinking that a piece is really pretty nice is not quite the same thing as feeling that you simply must have it. We already know that you didn't buy the two pieces, for example. Why not? 4. Maybe other Belouch collectors who saw them didn't share your enthusiasm for the pieces. It could go on and on. I think it's as much of a mistake to try to see long term market trends from the outcome of a single sale (or of two pieces in a single sale) as it is to see long term stock market trends from the results of a single day on Wall Street. There is some information in it, but the signal to noise ratio is horrendously low. Regards, Steve Price

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Tom+Cole
Date  :  05-06-2000 on 10:40 a.m.
This fragment was one of the more elegant examples of Khorassan weaving extant. As Michael described it, the grace and articulation of the drawing was truly striking as well as the wool quality (but don't most good Baluch rugs have wonderful wool? Seems to go with the territory.) and what has been described as an old back. The patination of the back is what makes it seem old, patination through use as well as age. The structure, too, was interesting as upon cursory examination, it appears to be single wefted, a significant departure from what we have noted in the past regarding Baluch structural characteristics. What has been unmentioned to date is the appearance of a small tertiary element which I have NEVER seen in these so-called mina khani rugs, a small trefoil device which appears more than once in the field, scattered with apparent random intent. In terms of unique qualities, it is this device in addition to the structure which separate this piece from others of the type. Regarding estimates concerning the highest prices paid for Baluch rugs, they have been higher than anyone has ventured to guess so far. Twenty thousand dollars is just the tip of the iceberg, so to speak. I don't believe the prices for Baluch material have become stagnant or falling, it is only the public offerings which may be meeting those specifications. And Baluch fragments have sold for significant sums of money in the past, but usually privately and quietly rather than in public venues.

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  Daniel Hsieh
Date  :  05-06-2000 on 08:59 p.m.
dhsieh@purdue.edu About the rug market---What are the pluses and minuses of the market going up or down? As a newcomer to rugs I value the fact that I can purchase a good, honest work of art for as little as a few hundred dollars.

Subject  :  RE:Some Images
Author  :  R. John Howe
Date  :  05-06-2000 on 10:48 p.m.
Hi Tom - Thanks for this additional description of what might constitute an "old back." As I said above, many experienced folks I've asked about it say that it cannot be satisfactorily expressed in words. I know from my professional work that there are such things: we both "know more than what we can say" and often when we try to describe some recognition (or other skill) our descriptions are faulty. So I collect every indicator in this area that I can find. I looked up "patina" again because although I am familiar with the term as it is usually applied to furniture and to the pile surface of rugs, your usage here referring to the back of a rug seemed distinctive. The applicable definition says that "patina" refers to "the sheen produced by age and use on any antique surface." So what it appears that is being referred to with this rug is that the back had a 1) "salt and pepper" look resulting from its single-wefted structure; 2) had some signs of abrasion (the "wear" cited in the definition of patina); and 3) a sheen or shiny-ness produced by this abrasion and by age. This kind of "baby-step" unpacking of what we are pointing at might seem too simplistic to some but I personally find it useful since I experience the descriptions of many experienced folks as rather elliptical. Thanks again, R. John Howe

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