Posted by Steve Price on June 16, 1999 at 04:22:47:
In Reply to: Prediction of Collectibles? - The relation between antique and aesthetic posted by Erol Abit on June 16, 1999 at 02:29:52:
1. You are absolutely correct in saying that making a prediction perturbs the system and affects the outcome. This does not destroy the usefulnes of the prediction, although it reduces its accuracy somewhat. It would be flattering to believe that our website is so important that we can seriously influence collectors 50 years from now, but I don't think this is possible.
2. The relation between aesthetics and a piece's age is a statistical one. If, out of every 1000 antique pieces, 950 have been destroyed and 50 have been preserved, then that 50 will almost surely have better aesthetic properties, on the average, than the original 1000. No such selection has yet occurred in the population of new rugs.
3. We recently held a Salon about why collectors collect what they do. There was agreement that aesthetics is important, perhaps the most important element, but that was certainly not the only factor.
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